Is the former president 'showing us who he really is?'
The nation's 45th president has become a cautionary tale on how to lose votes.
I wrote this post well over a week ago. It slipped through the cracks.
In her book, Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away, cognitive scientist and former professional poker player Annie Duke tells a story about three climbers—Dr. Stuart Hutchison, Dr. John Taske and Lou Kasischke—who survived the deadly Everest climbing season of 1996, when a dozen lives lost on Mt. Everest. What’s notable about the trio’s journey, however, is that their survival was the result of adhering to a previously agreed upon plan to turn back if they had not reached a specific location by a predetermined time.
Other members of their expedition were not so lucky, as they doubled down, resolving to push toward the peak even as a storm blew in and make an already treacherous talk a near impossibility. Those who died ignored their own rules and it ultimately cost them their lives.
Duke refers to this behavior as an escalation of commitment to a losing course of action, an area of logic first posited by University of California at Berkley professor Barry M. Staw in his 1976 paper, “Knee deep in the big muddy: A study of escalating commitment to a chosen course of action.” In a nutshell, it spells out what happens when you make a bad decision, but instead of cutting your losses, you double down investing more time, more energy, more resources into what can clearly be seen as a lost cause.
“Grit is what gets you up the mountain,” writes Duke in Quit, “but quit is what tells you when to turn around."
When I first read about escalation of commitment, it struck me as a better way to share the bromide, “If you find yourself in a hole, stop digging.” Lately, however, I cannot think of the rationale without conjuring images of former Pres. Trump, who, each time he opens his mouth, seems to dig a deeper hole for himself as a candidate seeking the presidency as a Republican.
A questionable strategy
Speaking on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” Trump fumbled miserably on the issue of abortion, as he repeatedly declined to say whether he would support a federal ban. For someone who constantly pats himself on the back for the number of federal judges he helped place on the bench and who has been steadfast in saying he’s the reason Roe v. Wade was overturned, his mealy mouthed “[I could] live with” it, when asked about the procedure being banned by individual states or nationwide via a federal action, was surprising.
But, when pressed for a statement on the bill signed by Florida Gov. DeSantis, which bans abortions after six weeks, the former president said “I think what he did is a terrible thing and a terrible mistake.”
In the interview, he continually referenced how abortion is a loser for the Republican party, in large part because the general public now (incorrectly) views Republicans as against abortions at any point and for any reason.
“Across the U.S., nearly 70% favor legal abortion in the first three months of pregnancy; 37 percent said it should be legal in the second three months of pregnancy; and 22 percent said it should be legal in the last three months of pregnancy. While Gallup’s polling shows the results are the highest trends shown in its poll since 1996, there continues to be decreasing support for the procedure’s legalization in the later stages of pregnancy.”
Were it any other candidate, I could understand his stance, especially when you consider that suburban women voters are likely to decide a close 2024 election. But, there is little chance that the former president is going to get many of those votes. Many suburban women—even those who did hold their noses and vote for him in the past—now know him to be a “loutish, moronic, unscrupulous, immoral, untrustworthy” candidate, as one acquaintance said to me in August. “And,” she said, “I once voted for the guy.”
DeSantis’ punches land solidly
As expected, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis didn’t take long to respond to Pres. Trump’s “terrible” idea comments, adding, during an ABC News interview, that Trump is a different candidate today than he was in 2015.
"He's taking positions that I think are different from what he took in 2015 when he first came onto the scene," said DeSantis. “I do think he's a different candidate today than he was back then. And I think the one back then was probably closer to where Republican voters want to be than the latest iteration.”
The thinly veiled remarks are a likely harbinger for a future line of attack. Already many of Pres. Trump’s formerly staunch supporters are echoing sentiments not voiced publicly since early 2015:
“Look, he’s just showing us who he really is. He’s always been a Democrat,” said a friend and former Trump supporter.
Failing politics 101
One of the first lessons you learn as a politician is “You cannot choose a position that costs you votes from people you must rely on to win.” This means you will, in fact, lose votes from lukewarm supporters who aren’t all in on you as a candidate or your positions. Majority rules.
Given this logic, it’s beyond me why the former president would hem and haw on the transgender issue when interviewed by Megyn Kelly. When pressed about whether or not he believed a man could become a woman, he appeared visibly uncomfortable before giving a hesitant and evasive answer.
"In my opinion...I think part of it is birth. Can the man give birth? No. Although they'll come up with some answer to that also. I heard just the other day, they have a way that now the man can give birth. No, I would say. Yeah, I'll continue my stance on that."
DeSantis pounced during an interview with the Concerned Women for America in Washington, DC.
“Don’t tell me a man can become a woman because it’s not true. Don’t tell me a man can get pregnant because it’s not true. There is value in standing up for what is true.”
A fight brewing
My favorite columnist, George F. Will, wrote earlier this year that “Neither Trump nor DeSantis will get the GOP nomination.” At the time, I hoped he was right. I relished seeing Sen. Tim Scott vanquish the feeble current president. But, alas, the first debate came and went with little more than a whimper from Scott and, despite DeSantis’ warts, I think he is the most likely to both get the nomination and win. (Yes, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley looms.)
For my money, the 45th president fades into the background as DeSantis becomes less Woke Warrior and more presidential.