Obama and the Dems are not afraid of Tim Scott—Yet.
Democrats have no reason to fear Republican gains among Blacks.
Recently, the WSJ ran a story with the following headline: “Why Barack Obama Attacks Tim Scott: A black conservative president would rebut the former president’s racial and political narrative. Even before I read the Op-ed, I knew what it was about and would likely say, as it came on the heels of the former president attacking minority presidential candidates Tim Scott and Nikki Haley.
“As America’s first black President, Barack Obama entered office with a promise of improving race relations and reducing political discord. Eight years later, rancor was worse as Mr. Obama’s Administration exploited race as a political weapon on voting rules, criminal justice, and preferences for jobs and much more. This explains why the former President is now attacking South Carolina Republican Sen. Tim Scott.”
During an interview with his former White House senior adviser David Axelrod, the former president said of Scott and Haley:
“I think there’s a long history of African-American or other minority candidates within the Republican Party who will validate America and say, ‘Everything’s great, and we can all make it.’ I mean, Nikki Haley, I think, has a similar approach.”
“I’m not being cynical about Tim Scott individually. I am maybe suggesting that the rhetoric of ‘Can’t we all get along’” has to be “undergirded with an honest accounting of our past and our present,” Mr. Obama said. He added that people can be “rightly skeptical” when a Republican, “who may even be sincere in saying, ‘I want us all to live together,’ doesn’t have a plan for how do we address crippling generational poverty that is a consequence of hundreds of years of racism in this society.”
The journal went on to make the case that Obama sees Sen. Scott as a threat, noting how the latter’s story of uplift and his unwavering faith in the country is a “dagger pointed at the heart of the progressive project that sustains a permanent underclass dependent on Democratic welfare programs. That is the real reason Mr. Obama is attacking Mr. Scott and Ms. Haley.”
That’s gibberish.
I’ve read the WSJ since college and it remains my favorite news site, as it is the first web page I open each day. I don’t agree with the WSJ Op-ed at all on the points above, though, mainly because there is little to fear from Democrats, especially since Scott’s own party is likely to largely ignore his candidacy. However, there is one point the paper made in this piece that really got my attention.
It’s where they referenced a data point that has become seemingly rooted in fact: “If Republicans ever broke through to win 20% of the black vote, for example, Republicans would become the majority party.” The 20% figure has been around for years. I first read about it in college, when I saw a research paper titled Blacks and the Republican Party: The 20% Solution.
The central tenet of the paper is summed up in the following quote:
“Twenty percent appears to be the threshold that Republican strategists believe will establish GOP dominance in American politics—not only in presidential politics, which has been the pattern since 1968, but in congressional contests as well.”
I’ve said for two decades that the Black electorate is ripe for a welcoming message from the Republican party. That message could be one focused on education, jobs, safe communities, economic stability, and police reform. If that sounds like a universally appealing message, it is. As I’ve said numerous times before, Republicans have the message; they simply refuse to reach out to broad swaths of the Black community in any coordinated fashion, a point that has been made continually by the National Review no less.
“GOP attempts at black outreach are inconsistent and repeatedly undone by inadvisable strategic communication choices and a basic callousness about the black experience in America. … But the blame does not fall solely on the Republican party. Black voters have allowed themselves to be cordoned off into the Democratic party. …This is the current state of the African-American electorate. The Republican party ignores it and the Democratic party takes it for granted.”
The ‘cannot’ or ‘will not’ problem
In 2020, Pres. Trump received roughly 12% of the Black vote in an election where Blacks were ~12% of the electorate, with Black men outnumbering Black women two to one. Pres. George W. Bush won 8.4% of the Black vote in 2000 and 11% of the Black vote in 2004. That Trump’s populist, rhetoric-laden message appealed to Blacks, especially Black men is not entirely a surprise.
Many folks were shocked to hear of Trump’s gains amongst Blacks, especially Black men, but it shouldn’t come as a surprise at all. Pres. Trump’s hardline approach to immigration is one that appeals to Black men, many of whom feel at risk of having their jobs taken by undocumented workers. What’s more, the president’s record on the unemployment rate, the economy, and his push for prison reform was well-received by the Black community as whole.
What this all means is that, if Republicans really wanted to increase their percentage of the Black vote, they would have done so. After all, it’s a well-researched fact that most Blacks are conservative; they simply vote for the Democratic Party. I think the 20% figure is nothing more than a talking point. The national party apparatus has moved on, choosing to focus on easier fish to catch.
Candidly, I don’t entirely blame the party, but I do condemn the flawed logic.
When I have conversations with conservative friends about the dismal efforts of Republicans to court the Black vote, a point that continually comes up is the perception—often stated as fact—that significance gains in the Black community would be all out impossible given that social programs and entitlements loom large for the group and likely represent a bridge too far in attracting the group that overwhelmingly supports the Democratic Party.
Not so fast, I say. Republicans wouldn’t be going after all Black votes; they’d be going after the votes of folks most receptive to a conservative message. This is segmentation 101, which would entail putting resources behind going after groups similar to those who’ve most recently voted Republican and who consistently label themselves conservative. For my money, that’s Black men, as evidenced by data from NBC:
Over half of Black men (52 percent) who identified as ideologically conservative cast their vote for the Pres. Trump.
1 in 3 Black men living in the Midwest voted for Trump.
26 percent of Black men who had a high school diploma or less supported Pres. Trump.
22 percent of Black men with bachelor’s degrees and 20 percent of Black men with advanced degrees also supported him.
The question is not “Will a conservative message appeal to Blacks?” The question is “Why hasn’t the Republican party made a stronger, more consistent appeal to the Black community?” What is clear is that the same strategy that won the White House in 2016 has not been a winner in more than half a decade.
During a recent lunch meeting with a friend, he asked why I thought Republicans haven’t committed to making inroads with the Black community. I answered by sharing a quote from the movie Hannibal, when one of the antagonists said to his benefactor, “Can not or will not?” when the former made an excuse for not taking part in an effort to kill Hannibal Lector.
We know the answer isn’t ‘can not,’” I said. “I think it’s ‘will not.’”
Given this fact, I assure you, Democrats are not fearful of losing votes to Republicans.
6 and 60
“About 60% of the violence in Chicago happens in just 6% of the city.” [Bloomberg]
What I’m reading
Blitzscaling: The Lightning-Fast Path to Building Massively Valuable Companies, by Reid Hoffman and Chris Yeh
Fully 75% of the books that I read are business books, so Blitscaling, written by the guy (Hoffman) who founded Linkedin, was an easy choice. It details the specific set of practices used to build and grow businesses at a lightning pace while making clear the challenges and advantages of doing so. What I’ve found most interesting is the focus on speed over efficiency as a tool scale up acquire market share.